UCO Political Forecasting Class Predicts President Obama to Win Election

EDMOND, OK-- There are many political forecasting models out there, but for the last few presidential elections, predictions from the political forecasting class at the University of Central Oklahoma have been spot on.  Dr. Randall Jones, a political science professor at UCO, says his students predicted the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election right down to the electoral votes.

"It teaches them the real world of politics," said Dr. Jones, "it's one thing to get politics out of a textbook, it's another thing to actually see what is going on in real time."

For the last few weeks, students in Dr. Jones' class have analyzed polling data and betting markets to determine the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. 

"It can be kind of grueling and tedious," said Dylan Billings, a senior political science major,  "but it's something that I'm interested in."

With a focus on battleground states, students spent Sunday afternoon making their predictions for Colorado, Florida, and Virginia.

"We do what we can to eliminate those biases to get a solid number," Billings explained.

By the end of the class, students determined based recent polls, President Barack Obama would win Colorado and Virginia.  The students also projected Governor Mitt Romney would win Florida. 

The class expects President Obama to win with 303 electoral votes.  In the popular vote, they expect the split to be 50.53% for Obama, 49.47% for Romney. 

"I actually thought that it would be closer," said Adam Jacobson, a senior political science major.

Although the president is expected to win, students say voters should not expect a repeat of the 2008 election.

"Barack Obama's victory margin will not be as wide," Billings explained, "there will be a lot more close states, and it could be another LONG election night like in 2000."

No matter how long it takes Super Tuesday, many students in the political forecasting class say they will keep a close eye on the presidential race. 

"I'll be hoping that we got it right," said Adam Jacobson, a senior political science major, "and hoping that the map looks like our map."UCO Political Forecasting Class Predicts President Obama to Win Election

Posted: Sunday, November 4 2012, 09:23 PM CST