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UCO Political Forecasting Class Predicts President Obama to Win Election
EDMOND, OK-- There are many political forecasting models out there, but for the last few presidential elections, predictions from the political forecasting class at the University of Central Oklahoma have been spot on. Dr. Randall Jones, a political science professor at UCO, says his students predicted the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election right down to the electoral votes.
"It teaches them the real world of politics," said Dr. Jones, "it's one thing to get politics out of a textbook, it's another thing to actually see what is going on in real time."
For the last few weeks, students in Dr. Jones' class have analyzed polling data and betting markets to determine the outcome of the 2012 presidential race.
"It can be kind of grueling and tedious," said Dylan Billings, a senior political science major, "but it's something that I'm interested in."
With a focus on battleground states, students spent Sunday afternoon making their predictions for Colorado, Florida, and Virginia.
"We do what we can to eliminate those biases to get a solid number," Billings explained.
By the end of the class, students determined based recent polls, President Barack Obama would win Colorado and Virginia. The students also projected Governor Mitt Romney would win Florida.
The class expects President Obama to win with 303 electoral votes. In the popular vote, they expect the split to be 50.53% for Obama, 49.47% for Romney.
"I actually thought that it would be closer," said Adam Jacobson, a senior political science major.
Although the president is expected to win, students say voters should not expect a repeat of the 2008 election.
"Barack Obama's victory margin will not be as wide," Billings explained, "there will be a lot more close states, and it could be another LONG election night like in 2000."
No matter how long it takes Super Tuesday, many students in the political forecasting class say they will keep a close eye on the presidential race.
"I'll be hoping that we got it right," said Adam Jacobson, a senior political science major, "and hoping that the map looks like our map."
Posted: Sunday, November 4 2012, 09:23 PM CST
IN OKLAHOMA NEWS
Thunderstorms slow Oklahoma tornado cleanup
May 23, 2013 20:18 GMT
Eds: Updates photo links. Multimedia: An interactive using graphics and photos to detail the tornado's path through Moore, Okla., and a count of the injured and dead is available at /interactives/2013/oklahoma-tornadoes/. With AP Photos. By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN and RAMIT PLUSHNICK-MASTI Associated Press
MOORE, Okla. (AP) -- A band of thunderstorms battered the Oklahoma City area Thursday, slowing cleanup operations in the suburb where a tornado killed 24 people and destroyed thousands of homes this week.
The first of the funerals, for a 9-year-old girl killed at a Moore elementary school that took a direct hit in Monday's storm, took place Thursday morning. A family photo showed the girl, Antonia Candelaria, beaming with a big smile and wearing a white sun hat.
Early estimates indicate the tornado caused more than $2 billion of damage in Moore. Whole subdivisions in the fast-growing community of 56,000 people were destroyed.
Antonia's relatives and friends huddled under umbrellas in a downpour as they hurried into a chapel for her funeral. Mournful country music played in the chapel that was adorned with photos of the smiling girl.
Two elementary schools were hit -- one was leveled -- by Monday's tornado. Antonia was one of seven children who perished at the Plaza Towers Elementary School, a one story building with barely a wall left standing. Altogether, 10 children were killed in the storm, including two infants.
The medical examiner reported that six of the children who died at Plaza Towers suffocated after being buried under a mass of bricks, steel and other materials as the building collapsed. A seventh child who died there, 8-year-old Kyle Davis, was killed instantly by an object -- perhaps a large piece of stone or a beam -- that fell on the back of his neck.
Thursday's thunderstorms produced hail, heavy rain and high winds in the morning. A flash flood warning was also in effect. The National Weather Service said more severe storms were forecast for late afternoon and at night, and that more tornados were a possibility.
The weather was hampering cleanup and recovery efforts that had just begun to accelerate now that all of the missing have been accounted for. Residents were only formally allowed back into the damage zone on Wednesday afternoon, where they picked through enormous piles of debris.
Shayne Patteson was among them, moving around the ruins of his three-bedroom home. All that was left was the tiny area where his wife hunkered down under a mattress to protect their three children when a tornado packing winds of at least 200 mph slammed through his neighborhood.
Patteson vowed to rebuild, likely in the same place, but said next time he will have an underground storm shelter.
"That is the first thing that will be going into the design of the house, is the storm shelter and the garage," he said as he looked around piles of bricks and plywood where their home once stood.
Moore Mayor Glenn Lewis said Wednesday he would propose an ordinance in the next couple of days to require all new homes to have storm shelters.
The city already has some. After a massive tornado tore a near-identical path in 1999, city authorities provided incentives such as federal grant dollars to help residents cover the costs of safe rooms. This time, though, Lewis thinks it is necessary to compel people to include them in all new construction.
Associated Press writer Tim Talley contributed to this report.
OKLAHOMA HEADLINES
Thunderstorms slow Oklahoma tornado cleanup
Tornado watch in effect for parts of west Oklahoma
Okla. reopens emergency operations command center
Line of storms brings flash floods to OKC area
Okla. House gives final approval to tornado relief
Mourners remember girl, 9, killed in Okla. tornado
Motorists urged to avoid I-35 in Moore
International leaders in energy touring Oklahoma
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Thunderstorms slow Oklahoma tornado cleanup
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71°
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